HOUSMAIL HM#040 - EARTHQUAKE STATISTICS                               24 September 1999
__________________________________________________________________________

This information was current at Tuesday 14 September 1999
From - National Earthquake Information Center
http://gldss7.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/7up.html

QUOTE: __________________________________________________________________

NUMBER OF EARTHQUAKES PER YEAR MAGNITUDE 7.0 OR GREATER 1900 - 1998

1900    13      1930    13      1960    22      1990    13
1901    14      1931    26      1961    18      1991    10
1902     8      1932    13      1962    15      1992N   23
1903    10      1933    14      1963    20      1993M   16
1904    16      1934    22      1964    15      1994    15
1905    26      1935    24      1965    22      1995E   25
1906    32      1936    21      1966    19      1996    22
1907    27      1937    22      1967    16      1997    20
1908    18      1938    26      1968    30      1998    16
1909    32      1939    21      1969    27
1910    36      1940    23      1970    29
1911    24      1941    24      1971    23
1912    22      1942    27      1972    20
1913    23      1943*   41      1973    16
1914    22      1944    31      1974    21
1915    18      1945    27      1975    21
1916    25      1946    35      1976$   25
1917    21      1947    26      1977    16
1918    21      1948    28      1978    18
1919    14      1949    36      1979    15
1920     8      1950    39      1980    18
1921    11      1951    21      1981    14
1922    14      1952    17      1982    10
1923    23      1953    22      1983    15
1924    18      1954    17      1984     8
1925    17      1955    19      1985    15
1926    19      1956    15      1986#    6
1927    20      1957    34      1987    11
1928    22      1958    10      1988     8
1929    19      1959    15      1989     7

Average events per year approx = 20

        * - Most active year since 1900
        # - Least active year since 1900
        $ - Year with most people killed since 1900 (295,000 - 699,000;
            dominated by the Tangshan quake with casualty estimate from
            255,000 - 655,000)
        N - First full year of operation on NSN/digital recording system
        M - Year moment magnitude quotes were introduced
        E - Year energy magnitude quotes were introduced

Statistics were compiled from the Earthquake Data Base System of the 
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center, Golden CO
__________________________________________________________________________ 
END QUOTE

TOTALS MAGNITUDE 7.0 OR GREATER FOR DECADES:

1900-1909 196
1910-1919 226
1920-1929 171
1930-1939 202
1940-1949 298
1950-1959 209
1960-1969 204
1970-1979 204
1980-1989 112
1990-1998 171 (9 years only)
__________________________________________________________________________

On the face of it, these figures do NOT provide a reliable basis for saying that there has been any remarkable increase in large earthquakes in recent years!

The National Earthquake Information Centre does say that there has been an increase in the number of earthquakes REPORTED each year. (Including other smaller quakes below 7.0) However that is not nearly the same thing as an actual increase in earthquake numbers! They attribute this to the improvement in global communications, and the large increase in the number of seismograph stations now available for detection. This means that a lot of quakes which would not have been detected or reported in past times, are now making the headlines. See their Web Page at:

http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/general/handouts/increase_in_earthquakes.html __________________________________________________________________________

It has become common for Christians everywhere, to quote as "FACT" that major Earthquakes have remarkably increased in frequency over recent years, and that this is "proof" of the nearness of the return of Jesus from Heaven.

BUT THE FIGURES QUOTED ABOVE DO NOT REALLY JUSTIFY THAT CLAIM!

For all of us, perhaps the most important point to be taken from all this, is that in the interest of TRUTH we need to be more careful with handling the STATISTICS!

Of course it is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that Jesus is coming. But we don't need to quote unreliable information to prove that! You can't build TRUTH on a foundation which is NOT TRUE! That is the Devil's domain!

To avoid bringing discredit on the Gospel, we need to pay more attention to checking out the accuracy of our information, instead of simply passing it on "second hand", as "proof" that Christ is coming back maybe next week!

In any case, there is a big question about whether Jesus actually meant to say that EARTHQUAKES would be one of the major signs of his coming! More about that another time.

Allon

_________________________________________________________________________